CISO Weekly Intelligence Brief — December 25, 2025

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Welcome reader to your CybersecurityHQ CISO Weekly Intelligence Brief.

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CybersecurityHQ publishes analyst-grade cyber intelligence for CISOs and security leaders operating at Fortune 100 scale. Each briefing isolates structural security failures and decision breakdowns across identity, machine trust, third-party access, and enterprise attack surfaces. The purpose is executive judgment, not headline reaction.

1. Executive Signal Snapshot

State-backed operational technology intrusions now run parallel to hacktivist disruption campaigns, both exploiting the same exposed VNC and HMI interfaces. CISA's CPG 2.0 introduced a governance function. NIST CSF 2.0 alignment now carries accountability language. The SEC voluntarily dismissed the SolarWinds litigation in November; the Cyber and Emerging Technologies Unit remains active. Regulation S-P amendments took effect December 3 for large broker-dealers and investment advisers. Platform consolidation in identity and asset visibility accelerated in December. Insurance sector breach disclosures from Aflac (22.7 million records) and Coupang (33 million records) entered notification phases. The number of active ransomware groups tracked reached 85, up from 45 observed in January. Cryptographic signature bypass exploits in Fortinet products entered active exploitation status.

2. Strategic Pressure Threads

2.1 State Actor Persistence in VMware Environments

Observed Movement CISA/NSA updated BRICKSTORM malware analysis with Rust-based samples and new YARA rules on December 19. Amazon disclosed a years-long GRU campaign targeting energy and cloud infrastructure through misconfigured edge devices.

Why It Exists Now Virtualization control planes remain attractive persistence targets. Chinese state actors maintained VMware vCenter access from April 2024 through September 2025 in at least one confirmed incident. Russian actors pivoted from zero-day exploitation to configuration exploitation as N-day windows compressed.

What Remains Unclear Whether existing VM snapshot integrity verification processes detect retrospective compromise. How many organizations have BRICKSTORM detection rules deployed in vCenter-specific logging.

2.2 Pro-Russia OT Disruption Campaign Expansion

Observed Movement December 9 joint advisory documented Z-Pentest, Sector16, and allied groups conducting opportunistic attacks against water utilities, energy infrastructure, and food production. Denmark's DDIS formally attributed water utility disruption to Z-Pentest.

Why It Exists Now Hacktivist operations shifted from DDoS toward VNC-based HMI intrusion. OT device exposure persists despite repeated advisories since May 2025. State tolerance of hacktivist activity provides operational deniability.

What Remains Unclear Which critical infrastructure operators have mapped all exposed VNC interfaces. Whether hacktivist groups have received direct technical support from GRU or FSB units.

2.3 Third-Party Breach Propagation in Insurance and Finance

Observed Movement Goldman Sachs notified fund investors December 19 of exposure through Fried Frank's systems. Aflac disclosed 22.7 million records compromised in June. 700Credit confirmed 5.6 million affected through API vulnerability active May through October.

Why It Exists Now Scattered Spider and affiliated actors targeted insurance companies throughout 2025. Third-party vendor contracts rarely specify breach notification timing to end customers. API security controls remain inconsistent across revenue cycle providers.

What Remains Unclear How many downstream financial institutions inherit breach notification obligations from upstream vendors. Whether cyber insurance carriers will adjust third-party risk clauses in 2026 renewals.

2.4 Healthcare Ransomware Shift to Extortion-Only

Observed Movement Industry research reported extortion-only attacks against healthcare tripled to 12% in 2025. Encryption rates dropped to 34%, lowest in five years. Ransom demands fell 91% to $343,000 median.

Why It Exists Now Healthcare backup maturation reduced encryption leverage. Medical data sensitivity supports extortion without encryption. Ransomware group fragmentation (85 active groups) drove competition toward lower-friction attack models.

What Remains Unclear Whether reduced ransom demands reflect weakened attacker leverage or altered payment negotiation tactics. How healthcare organizations will allocate recovery cost savings.

2.5 ICS/SCADA Vulnerability Concentration in Automation Vendors

Observed Movement CISA released nine ICS advisories December 19 covering Siemens, Schneider Electric, Rockwell, Advantech, Mitsubishi Electric, and others. DigiEver NVR command injection added to KEV catalog December 22.

Why It Exists Now Converged IT/OT environments expose previously air-gapped systems. Surveillance equipment commonly deployed with factory-default credentials. Vendor patch cycles misalign with OT maintenance windows.

What Remains Unclear How many organizations track ICS advisories through procurement rather than security functions. Whether NVR exploits are being chained with lateral movement into corporate networks.

3. Governance & Accountability Drift

SEC enforcement posture shifted materially in 2025. The SolarWinds dismissal in November followed a July 2024 partial dismissal; no admission of wrongdoing secured. The Atkins-led Commission deprioritized cyber disclosure enforcement while maintaining the Cyber and Emerging Technologies Unit.

CISA's CPG 2.0 (December 11) introduced governance as a distinct function aligned with NIST CSF 2.0. The framework references accountability, risk ownership, and strategic integration. Who bears that ownership at the operational level remains undefined in most organizational charts.

Third-party breach propagation (Goldman/Fried Frank, 700Credit/auto dealers) complicates disclosure timing. Legal counsel at intermediate entities now faces materiality determinations without full forensic visibility.

CISO liability jurisprudence remains unsettled despite SEC withdrawal from SolarWinds. NIS2 provisions create European board exposure. D&O coverage gaps persist for cyber-specific claims.

The distance between who owns breach disclosure and who possesses breach evidence widened.

4. Market & Vendor Signal

ServiceNow's announced $7.75 billion Armis acquisition and approximately $1 billion Veza deal compress identity and asset visibility into a single platform substrate. Palo Alto's pending $25 billion CyberArk acquisition and Google's $32 billion Wiz deal operate on the same consolidation logic. Q2 2025 M&A volume rebounded to 114 deals after a slower Q1. Identity, cloud security, and data security segments consolidated faster than other categories.

5. Premise Carryover Sentence

Vendor consolidation expands audit ambiguity before reducing risk.

6. Open Risk Register

  • BRICKSTORM detection rules not deployed in vCenter-specific logging environments

  • API authorization failures persisting across healthcare revenue cycle vendors

  • VNC exposure in food and agriculture OT environments

  • Extortion-only ransomware timing misaligned with encryption-centric incident response playbooks

  • Third-party breach notification timing unspecified in vendor contracts

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